As we move into 2007 what will be the major trends for the broadband wireless industry? One trend I noticed last year when I was doing my annual survey of top broadband wireless providers was (anecdotally at least) an acceleration of consolidation. Companies are merging, being bought and sold and in general trying to get larger via acquisition or merger.

Why? I think that answer is easy and is survival. As firms like Clearwire vigorously begin to enter the broadband wireless marketplace along with the steady growth of wireline and 3G cellular service, companies need economies of scale and new markets to grow.

I am also seeing a really welcome trend towards shifting more towards a B2B sales model by the independents. Companies like TowerStream and, as we saw last year, NextWeb have been rewarded for their lucrative B2B models (NextWeb selling to Covad).

In the coming year I think we should expect to continue to see WiMax shift more and more strongly towards the 802.16e Mobile version of the technology. Even for the vendors promoting the fixed WiMax version of the technology, most have strategies alreadyi place to migrate customers towards Mobile WiMax.

One big question for all of us is whether or not Sprint will be able to meet its very aggressive deployment plans which include launching WiMax service towards the end of this year.

I do think that municipal wireless will be certainly one if not the major growth segment for the whole broadband wireless marketplace. No bad thing. I would expect to see more targeted niche markets being addressed in that space—perhaps built around advertising schemes. I am very skeptical with advertising as a primary revenue driver, but in the right niche, with the right demographic, it could work….well maybe.

My new website is up. I am updating article links and adding older WiMax Global News Scripts as quickly as I can (for Non Native English speakers who have requested those).

Expect to see my newsletter soon. And WiMax Global News resumes THIS WEEK! I hope you will listen in.

Tim Sanders  tim@thefinalmile.net  www.thefinalmile.net  www.wimaxglobalnews.com

I think that the Municipal wireless movement is clearly one of the biggest stories of all of 2006. The growth on the vendor side has been tremendous as has the movement by carriers to shift to address this market. To begin with I believe the market is not being driven so much by need as by perceived need. Cities, who, in my opinion, feel constant competitive pressure with other municipalities to garner new industry wins and to improve economic development are now seeking Municipal wireless as a means to maintain the status quo. In short, it has momentum.

But will it be a success? I think the jury is out on that. Certainly, putting up municipal networks is going ahead full steam. But I think there are two potential pitfalls that everyone will need to address long term for the continued viability of the muni movement. One is self-interference as customer load grows. Another is the viability and sustainainability of the business case for carriers.

I believe the industry is, perhaps surprisingly, better positioned to address the issues of self-interference than the second question. A good network plan can obviate a lot of self-interference issues and there are numerous tricks carriers can use if they can obtain sufficient numbers of relay sites, from reducing power to channelization techniques to some of the new obviating technologies being talked about by vendors. This is just my opinion of course. Clearly, in the long haul this is a major concern. We are starting to see the advent of some dual WiMax backhaul/Wi-Fi at the edge muni solutions. This is welcome. Also expect to see some niche plays that focus on aspects of municipal (some confidences have to be kept here).

On the business case front, I actually see this as a bigger intrinsic issue as regards long-term viability. I am personally not a big fan of the advertising model as the primary revenue driver for a municipal offering. I think it is pertinent as perhaps a tertiary portion of the revenue plan, after municipal anchor tenants (for public safety purposes, etc.) and subscription systems. My biggest concern is that ubiquitous coverage for municicipal networks is the maximum most expensive way to deploy fixed wireless. And a pure or primary advertising supported model will almost surely be the slowest growth revenue model. It takes time to educate ad buyers on a new medium, plus it will require substantial customer usage (which also costs) to draw their dollars. I think the anchor tenant approach with the cities is the most viable first revenue model I have seen. Please note that no one approach is best. Plans have to be evaluated in their totality.

Next up: Looking forward to 2007

Tim Sanders

tim@thefinalmile.net  www.thefinalmile.net  www.wirelessglobalnews.com