I think that the Municipal wireless movement is clearly one of the biggest stories of all of 2006. The growth on the vendor side has been tremendous as has the movement by carriers to shift to address this market. To begin with I believe the market is not being driven so much by need as by perceived need. Cities, who, in my opinion, feel constant competitive pressure with other municipalities to garner new industry wins and to improve economic development are now seeking Municipal wireless as a means to maintain the status quo. In short, it has momentum.

But will it be a success? I think the jury is out on that. Certainly, putting up municipal networks is going ahead full steam. But I think there are two potential pitfalls that everyone will need to address long term for the continued viability of the muni movement. One is self-interference as customer load grows. Another is the viability and sustainainability of the business case for carriers.

I believe the industry is, perhaps surprisingly, better positioned to address the issues of self-interference than the second question. A good network plan can obviate a lot of self-interference issues and there are numerous tricks carriers can use if they can obtain sufficient numbers of relay sites, from reducing power to channelization techniques to some of the new obviating technologies being talked about by vendors. This is just my opinion of course. Clearly, in the long haul this is a major concern. We are starting to see the advent of some dual WiMax backhaul/Wi-Fi at the edge muni solutions. This is welcome. Also expect to see some niche plays that focus on aspects of municipal (some confidences have to be kept here).

On the business case front, I actually see this as a bigger intrinsic issue as regards long-term viability. I am personally not a big fan of the advertising model as the primary revenue driver for a municipal offering. I think it is pertinent as perhaps a tertiary portion of the revenue plan, after municipal anchor tenants (for public safety purposes, etc.) and subscription systems. My biggest concern is that ubiquitous coverage for municicipal networks is the maximum most expensive way to deploy fixed wireless. And a pure or primary advertising supported model will almost surely be the slowest growth revenue model. It takes time to educate ad buyers on a new medium, plus it will require substantial customer usage (which also costs) to draw their dollars. I think the anchor tenant approach with the cities is the most viable first revenue model I have seen. Please note that no one approach is best. Plans have to be evaluated in their totality.

Next up: Looking forward to 2007

Tim Sanders

tim@thefinalmile.net  www.thefinalmile.net  www.wirelessglobalnews.com