I haven't blogged on my own site in a while. My apologies for this. I do blog regularly on www.wimax.com and on www.wimax360.com for those who would like to see my more recent blogs.
What I wanted to do today was catch up with some of my current thought on the overall industry and where it is going. Lets start with Municipal Wireless. Probably no major broadband wireless industry initiative has become high profile and bust in near record time the way Muni Wireless has. Arguably, EarthLink both launched the industry and perhaps recently sounded its death knell by transferring the first of its five operations to the local city governments for free. The whole industry just got mired down by its bad business plans. And for their part the cities just wanted to get on the gravy train of getting something for free. I actually thought the industry had more legs than this, and that while it was the current bandwagon it could evolve into something useful. But nobody (much) found a business model that worked. And the result was chaos and loss. I suppose that my old WISP instincts about knowing where revenue was coming from for every major expense should have given me a better clue. I will listen to my gut better next time.
So where goes WiMAX in the US. Sprint and Clearwire are still in a holding pattern. I am hopeful that something good could come out of that if the companies and their investors can pump enough cash into some joint venture to get it started. Barry West recently said that ramping up WiMAX has been a lot harder than expected. I wonder if the bootstrap to real 4G will be that way for everybody. After all LTE technology is pretty close to WiMAX anyway. Hmmm? Meanwhile, smaller regional companies with licensed spectrum are moving on with WiMAX or precursor fixed/portable plays reasoning that those are strong enough to get customers—and they are. WiMAX needs some mobile certified gear as soon as possible.
The big 700 MHz auction was largely about the rich getting richer. For all its cheerleading Google did not succeed in forcing the C-block to be open to any operator and so Verizon ended up controlling it. AT&T was the other big winner. Some smaller regional plays got spectrum. As usual there is still a dearth of spectrum for small companies around the US who might deploy quickly if they could get some. Our public spectrum policy still leaves a lot to be desired. Sure this 700 spectrum has a four year build out requirement (once the spectrum is cleared by broadcasters), but when did industry giants NOT get an extension on such things—really?
So what is everybody else to do? I think the new 3.65 GHz spectrum offers huge opportunity for smaller independents. Three companies, Redline, Airspan and Alvarion have gear for the band, which is all WiMAX-based but obviously not really WiMAX as there is no product profile for this spectrum range. Interestingly, Alvarion's gear seems to be 802.16e based versus the others 802.16d based. I was surprised at that. In any event, minus the exclusion zone issues, you can deploy anywhere you want by just applying for a national license (takes 15 minutes I am told) and less than $250. Then you just register your base stations. This band will gain converts quickly if the gear works well.
I just completed putting together the Tower Technology Summit at CTIA for Light Reading. That was fun and got good reviews plus strong attendance. The Tower Industry is very healthy right now and will continue to be I think.
What else? There is plenty but this blog is already too long. Stay tuned for more.
The recent announcement by Sprint and Clearwire of their joint collaboration to build out their combined spectrum assets with a WiMAX network seems to have not caught on with very much buzz it seems. I am more optimistic than some about this. Certainly, there have been criticisms of Sprint of late, which has taken hits for the loss of customers and other setbacks in its bid to digest the Nextel merger.
However, in speaking to Sprint just yesterday I got the sense that the company has excitement about what this collaboration can do for them. They pointed out that WiMAX will offer a lot of opportunities for new revenue streams that did not exist before combined with significant cost savings over 3G deployments.
The details are that the two companies will trade some spectrum, pick out areas to deploy in and begin deployments independently, while offering customers a cross-roaming functionality AND develop a combined CDMA/WiMAX service that really manages the downside in case WiMAX doesn't pan out. The two companies plan to jointly cover 100 million customers by the end of next year, which is about what Sprint initially planned to deploy alone. So some detractors may pick at this because of that. For my part, I think there are more net positives for the industry and consumers that this is a minor issue. Deploying to anything close 100 million consumers is a gargantuan task. If involving Clearwire can get that done faster all the better. Ultimately Sprint intends to deploy to about 185 million consumers and Clearwire will pass about 115 million. Neither goal will be simple to accomplish.
I feel this will quiet restive investors on both sides for the companies and maybe allay fears of the expense of deploying a network of this scale. The cost factor seems to have a lot of both pundits and detractors who feel it will cost more. But I can't help but wonder if some analysts are looking at more traditional 3G cost models when parsing the information they are getting. In any event, I think this will answer a lot of Wall Street questions. I also think it will measurably speed the deployment of both networks especially as we move into 2008.
All well and good, but what does it mean for the industry? I see several positives. Getting deployments started will be a watershed (certainly Clearwire already is heavily engaged in this). But having Sprint actually begin deployments will be a bellwether moment. It ups the visibility for everybody. Also, I suspect that more institutional money, and investment money in general, will be drawn into the BWA marketplace as a whole. This type of rising tide could lift all boats. And make no mistake there is still tremendous opportunity for smaller carriers to make a mark in this space. To learn more about this and who some of those carriers are, stay tuned for my WiMAX report in September where we will reveal what we have found.
Ultimately, I view this collaboration as a positive step for the industry as a whole.
Good morning everyone. I have a new website. My designer www.CubeCreativeDesign.com has done a terrific job if freshening up my look. As part of this new site, I plan to start adding scripts for my podcast www.wimaxglobalnews.com as I got several requests mainly from my listenergs who were non-native English speakers trying to decipher my Southern US accent. Starting with the most recent show, those should start going up fairly shortly. Enjoy.
The site also features a calendar with my speaking engagements or show attendance or important events. I have secured permission from CMP media to reprint some articles I did with them last year that were not posted on the web. Thank you CMP. Other features include the occasional poll, a whole series of RSS linked news feeds (where RSS was available) including WiMax.com, Trendsmedia, ISP-Planet, BBWExchange.com and Wi-Fi Planet. I have all of my online articles up to date on the site. Plus links to two free Webinars I have done. I added the capability for people to contact me me via phone for a low per minute rate to ask the occasional in-depth question without having to retain a consultant. I hope you use it often.
There is more to discover so please enjoy the new site. Are there any features you would like to see that I missed?
Hello Everyone. I wanted to let you know that I am now podcasting again. My show www.wimaxglobalnews.com is live once again. I uploaded a new show last night. This week's topics include a summary of some of the top stories from 2006—at least in my opinion.
I discussed the Sprint decision to use WiMax for its 2.5 GHz spectrum, the AT&T/BellSouth merger, the AWS Spectrum auction, a few thoughts on the business case for Municipal Broadband, industry consolidation and more. I am very pleased to be back podcasting and hope to do so much more regularly this year. I see challenges in that as I am currently the busiest I have ever been which, while good, is a real challenge.
As we move into 2007 what will be the major trends for the broadband wireless industry? One trend I noticed last year when I was doing my annual survey of top broadband wireless providers was (anecdotally at least) an acceleration of consolidation. Companies are merging, being bought and sold and in general trying to get larger via acquisition or merger.
Why? I think that answer is easy and is survival. As firms like Clearwire vigorously begin to enter the broadband wireless marketplace along with the steady growth of wireline and 3G cellular service, companies need economies of scale and new markets to grow.
I am also seeing a really welcome trend towards shifting more towards a B2B sales model by the independents. Companies like TowerStream and, as we saw last year, NextWeb have been rewarded for their lucrative B2B models (NextWeb selling to Covad).
In the coming year I think we should expect to continue to see WiMax shift more and more strongly towards the 802.16e Mobile version of the technology. Even for the vendors promoting the fixed WiMax version of the technology, most have strategies alreadyi place to migrate customers towards Mobile WiMax.
One big question for all of us is whether or not Sprint will be able to meet its very aggressive deployment plans which include launching WiMax service towards the end of this year.
I do think that municipal wireless will be certainly one if not the major growth segment for the whole broadband wireless marketplace. No bad thing. I would expect to see more targeted niche markets being addressed in that space—perhaps built around advertising schemes. I am very skeptical with advertising as a primary revenue driver, but in the right niche, with the right demographic, it could work….well maybe.
My new website is up. I am updating article links and adding older WiMax Global News Scripts as quickly as I can (for Non Native English speakers who have requested those).
Expect to see my newsletter soon. And WiMax Global News resumes THIS WEEK! I hope you will listen in.
I think that the Municipal wireless movement is clearly one of the biggest stories of all of 2006. The growth on the vendor side has been tremendous as has the movement by carriers to shift to address this market. To begin with I believe the market is not being driven so much by need as by perceived need. Cities, who, in my opinion, feel constant competitive pressure with other municipalities to garner new industry wins and to improve economic development are now seeking Municipal wireless as a means to maintain the status quo. In short, it has momentum.
But will it be a success? I think the jury is out on that. Certainly, putting up municipal networks is going ahead full steam. But I think there are two potential pitfalls that everyone will need to address long term for the continued viability of the muni movement. One is self-interference as customer load grows. Another is the viability and sustainainability of the business case for carriers.
I believe the industry is, perhaps surprisingly, better positioned to address the issues of self-interference than the second question. A good network plan can obviate a lot of self-interference issues and there are numerous tricks carriers can use if they can obtain sufficient numbers of relay sites, from reducing power to channelization techniques to some of the new obviating technologies being talked about by vendors. This is just my opinion of course. Clearly, in the long haul this is a major concern. We are starting to see the advent of some dual WiMax backhaul/Wi-Fi at the edge muni solutions. This is welcome. Also expect to see some niche plays that focus on aspects of municipal (some confidences have to be kept here).
On the business case front, I actually see this as a bigger intrinsic issue as regards long-term viability. I am personally not a big fan of the advertising model as the primary revenue driver for a municipal offering. I think it is pertinent as perhaps a tertiary portion of the revenue plan, after municipal anchor tenants (for public safety purposes, etc.) and subscription systems. My biggest concern is that ubiquitous coverage for municicipal networks is the maximum most expensive way to deploy fixed wireless. And a pure or primary advertising supported model will almost surely be the slowest growth revenue model. It takes time to educate ad buyers on a new medium, plus it will require substantial customer usage (which also costs) to draw their dollars. I think the anchor tenant approach with the cities is the most viable first revenue model I have seen. Please note that no one approach is best. Plans have to be evaluated in their totality.
Hi. Everyone. I am finally back blogging. My new website is (almost) finished and I thought it a good time to resume. I thought it would also be a good time for a series of recaps of all things wireless for this year and bring you up to date with some new things for me. I will do this in a series of several blogs because there is a ton to talk about.
To begin with my podcast, www.wimaxglobalnews.com is shifting from being done with with a partner, Tom Parish, to just me. Tom had some life and carreer changes this year that led him in a different direction. I will miss him. But I am going to work very hard to re-dedicate myself to the podcast and get that out regularly. I hope to start having interesting guests on shortly.
I am finally getting close on the new website and it will feature an industry forum feature for those who like chatting about the industry. I will moderate it. The Golden Rule of good conduct applies. It will also have lots of new features for visitors to make reading it easier.
Also, I have been doing a ton of media related work this past year but it looks like this year will shift toward working more in the WiMax industry and with clients. And my first research report, which will be geared to (you guessed it) what I know best which will be US Wireless ISPs should be out this winter.
It has been an eventful year. The two biggest stories in my opinion have been Municipal Wireless and WiMax, especially their win with Sprint Nextel. After that, the consolidation in the industry is very noticeable as is a new love affair with business-to-business focus by Broadband Wireless Providers, which I deeply approve of.
WiMax has been slowed by the shift toward using the 802.16e standard versus the 802.16d version, which in my opinion will shortly become the de-facto WiMax standard. In retrospect it would have been great if it could have been chosen for both fixed and mobile WiMax (802.16e) to begin with as I think the industry would be farther along. But all things in good time. I am not troubled by the shift. I do hope the Forum comes out with some fixed version 802.16e for unlicensed band providers but we will see.
I do think fixed WiMax technology will continue to do well for a time, but I expect we will see tons of fixed applications of mobile WiMax versions of 802.16e type technology in replacement of it. Most of the carriers currently active with precursor 802.16e technology are using it in fixed format. It is after all exactly what Clearwire, Unwired Australia, and numerous others are doing. This is where the low-hanging fruit is. Selling WiMax as a mobile service for those who are not already cellular companies will be a big culture shift. Note I said culture, not technology. I think the bigger hurdle will be changing their cultures to think Mobile. For that reason I expect non cellular WiMax carriers to be slow in ramping up mobile offerings. They will talk about it but actually doing it will be a big. deal. Besides the customer demand in fixed setting will be so high for a while that I think they may struggle to find mindshare for those shifts. Mobile will come as the Muni movement pushes it and the technologies converge and as fixed adoption slows. Then traditional fixed aspect carriers will look to shift to a more mobile stance.
I am going to end this first installment to keep the blog short. But I will add to this recap series in the coming week. Good to be back. Thanks for reading my blog.
Hello readers. Thank you for your patience with me over the past month or so. I've blogged none at all. My only excuse is I have been super busy. Lots has been going on of late though. Let me catch you up. I have started maintaining the daily news and weekly newsletter for www.broadband-wireless.com so I hope you find that helpful and enjoyable. I am almost finished with a white paper I was asked to do for the WiMAX Forum titled: "Best Practices", VoIP Delivery over WiMAX Networks. I have interviewed a number of carriers extensively for this piece and learned a lot about VoIP delivery over broadband wireless. One big thing is that the planning process is crucial. Also, the wireless RF aspect is only one part of delivering carrier class voice. Carriers are succeeding however. Hopefully this white paper will be ready soon. And thanks to all of you who participated. I want to talk about some of the news items I think that are especially important. Perhaps first among this is the ongoing debate on Net Neutrality. The warring camps seem to be more entrenched each day. I suspect this topic will NOT be settled soon at all. However, if I had to hazard a guess I would estimate that the major carriers will win the argument. Their arguments have merits. But more importantly, their lobby is just too seasoned and good. I personally question if a tiered Internet is in the public interest. The money will have to come from somewhere, everyone will pass the costs on and ultimately I expect we will all pay more for access. The AWS auction in the (mostly) 1.7 GHz range, when it finally gets off the ground will be BIG for the US. We desperately need the spectrum. However, as usual, bigger companies will mostly warehouse the bands and especially rural markets will see little improvements for years. One firm, M2ZNetworks has proposed the FCC allow it use of 2155 to 2175 MHz without upfront cost in exchange for its building a nationwide broadband network at 384K free to all. It will field a premium network and pay 5 percent of its revenues back to the government as well. John Muleta, the former FCC Wireless Bureau Chief is the CEO and its Chairman is Milo Medin, who founded @Home networks. It is a laudable idea and could actually deliver nationwide free wireless however, the build out requirements of 33 percent in three years and 66 percent in five years and 95 percent in ten years means this company too will have to start in metropolitan area first as well to succeed. Very interesting play. I think it has a decent chance. Clearwire is going public in a $400 million IPO. Most interestingly it disclosed that it had 88,000 customers in its filing per an article I read. That is big news for the industry. Nokia dropping its CDMA joint venture with Sanyo is interesting, particularly as I am hearing anecdotally from friends that it is tougher to get CDMA handsets down in price. Qualcomm quickly launched damage control. But I think this underscores why it has moved strongly into OFDM products of late. The future will happen no matter what. And I don't think Qualcomm plans to be left behind. WiMAX is moving along steadily and 802.16e precursor products are starting to appear. Intel should soon have chipsets for laptops on the market. There is lots more, too much for one blog. I will try much harder to blog a little more steadily on things I find interesting and worthy of comment. Thanks for eading my blog. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
I am getting closer and closer to buying one of these little phones. A piece in CNET describes the new Treo 700p model from Palm that supports the faster EV-DO networks. This new model supports Bluetooth natively. If they will just finally add Wi-Fi capability one of these little jewels will be MINE. I realize power is an issue and added power may be needed to supplement the on-board batteries. But I wouldn't mind buying a piggyback cell. Very close. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
An excellent article in The Wall Street Journal (suscription required) discusses government failures to deliver a wholesome spectrum policy to the marketplace. Some of the statistics cited are very revealing and interesting. The government's outlook towards spectrum as a resource to keep scarce (and pricey) is very anti-competitive in many ways in my opinion too. We need more and smaller companies with access to licensed spectrum and there is plenty the Federal Government is sitting upon. Nice piece. I always like the way the WSJ treats subjects in depth. You learn a lot. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
This rather controversial piece in Light Reading interviews Rad Data's Zohar Zisapel about his views on Fixed WiMax. To say the least his views are very critical. Mr. Zisapel is deservedly considered an entrepreneur of great renown. However, his wireless gear brand Radwin is working on Wi-Fi systems with WiMax like capabilities. On this one point I believe it is important to consider the commercial interests in those comments. The piece in general is very entertaining. Certainly Mr. Zisapel has no problem with delivering a frank opinion. And you have to find that refreshing anytime. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
Another good piece in The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) about the just-announced partnership with Nokia and Google to deliver Google's voice product over Nokia's tablets device for WiFi hotspots. This device apparently has no cellular capability as yet. I am increasingly coming to believe that VoIP will be the killer application that will drive broadband to its next level. It seems like such a simple thing. But the proliferation of IP calling platforms is getting almost dizzying. AOL is getting in the game. I got an e-mail just this morning from Skype announcing free outbound calling in the US and Canada through the end of the year. I realize their cost factors must be pretty low, but wow. This will drive broadband adoption like nothing else I believe. Increasingly you need broadband just to function in our society. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
There was a nice piece in the Houston Business Journal detailing Crown Castle's acquisition of Virginia based Mountain Union Telecom LLC. The $309 millon dollar deal set to close July 7, 2006, nets Crown Castle 468 completed tower sites and another 79 under construction. The annual revenue from the sites is $26 Million. And the towers are mostly located in the Western US, including LA, Denver, Phoenix, Las Vegas and some Puerto Rican locations. With increasing public resistance to towers coupled with the incessant public demand for service, expect to see more and more consolidation in the tower industry as bigger providers look to grow through acquisition. It is often much easier to upgrade a tower to accept more tenants than to build one from scratch, although not necessarily cheaper. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
I had a really good show at Broadband Wireless World in Vegas week before last. I almost did not go due to how much I had going on workwise (It is good to have work by the way). I haven't missed the show since I started going. Ultimately I am glad I made it. I came home with even more work. So that is double great. Plus Tim Downs gave me my first voice in the industry as a writer and consultant and I don't believe in forgetting your oldest friends. So what went on? Kelley Dunne showed up with his new company Digital Bridge Communications, but he kept a low key profile. I think that firm will do very well. The Digital Middletown talk by Ball State professors and Kelley was excellent too. Proxim stepped up as the top sponsor. I thought that the mesh guys were out in real force. Strix was there and its customer Mobilepro was speaking. Tropos, Motorola with their two Mesh systems, Hopling (through its distributor StarMesh), Skypilot and one or two I don't recall. Mesh is really hot right now. Municipal wireless is driving the Broadband Wireless Industry right now. The WiMax talk and fervor from last year has muted a bit, I suspect because gear is still not widely available. The need for standards isn't going away though and the industry is just sensibly focusing on where the growth is right now. When WiMax is ready for the US market the intensity will be back. This isn't to say that it was unrepresented. Fujitsu was at the show in force and has been announcing wins left and right. As are many precursor WiMax vendors. The precursor proprietary gear is very, very good folks. And it meets the business case now. Don't wait for anything to get customes. Now is the time Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.net
You may be wondering why I am harping so on this search technology. It doesn't have that much daily direct impact on broadband wireless for me. But search to me is what has driven the web for a long time. Google has been the only real rock star (in my mind) to survive the dotcom fallout. I read in Friday's Wall Street Journay where eBay, Microsoft and Yahoo are collaborating because they fear Google might cannibalize their business. So really innovative new search technology is a big deal I think. It could impact wireless, especially cellular in a big way. People have no patience, if they could get useful info in one click on a phone, suddenly the Internet makes sense in that application. This is a huge deal for WiMax, especially mobile WiMax. So let me catch you up. You will recall I have blogged on a company called Wireless 5th Dimensional Networking, Inc. a couple of times already. Well, there are a lot of people at MIT who have been working on wireless technologies of all sorts. And this one I found is just one of them. Well, here is another along the same lines. It appears that Nokia is partnering with MIT on this new type of search in a big, big way. Are they possibly the firm who bought 5th Dimension? I don't know. As a public company it and Google would have to disclose a purchase I would assume. I didn't see anything on either. Maybe a purchase through a subsidiary would be harder to find? Not my specialty and I don't have that much free time. I did "Google" (and what is the irony of that huh?) some of the other papers cited in Fuller's Thesis and that is some interesting stuff. One paper by Wesley Chan is based on GIS locates of APs (as I understand it from a quick browse). I am not certain if this is his personal website or not. But it does reference him writing one of the most downloaded client applications ever (his words). Can you say the Google Toolbar? I have one at the top of my screen. So is all of this coincidence? Maybe. Heck, even probably. The MIT genius community can't be that big after all. Most likely Fuller drew on Chan's research as others have since probably drawn on theirs. The Nokia project may have no relationship to either and then again it might be influenced by it. What do I know conclusively from all this? Not a whole lot. Just supposition. A Thesis is public domain. Patents however mean a bit more. I am getting the sense that we might be on the cusp of some really radical new technologies that will draw on wireless very heavily to really affect change in our lives. One was the tunable RF chip that a 5th Dimension advisor's company is working on. Others are these search technologies. I've been reading Fuller's thesis a bit more and I think I have a grasp of what it is a bit better. It seems the first main goal is to reduce clicks to consistently under 3. That sounds about right to me for a portable handheld device holder. Much more and they give up or find a phone book to look for ads. I recently saw where one search engine (Yahoo I think) offers actual video driving directions from one site to another. Cool, cool stuff. That all REQUIRES broadband to work well. And especially wireless broadband. I think this will really impact WiMax a lot. If I hear more I will let you know. Maybe the company will call me back or drop me a note. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
If you will recall Monday I blogged about this stealth (sort of anyway) search company called Wireless 5th Dimensional Networking, Inc. Well the company's site says it was sold anonymously (one supposes privately). If you will recall too I thought the technology was really innovative. First, it is optimized for wireless networks—a big plus. Also, it kind of operates like Google in reverse: instead of the end user looking for information, the information acts to find the end-user. Cool stuff. I think it could revolutionize the Broadband Wireless business especially on the advertising side. And more importantly the handset side for WiMax and Cellular providers. I mean people haven't used the Internet a whole lot with handsets because it is slow and takes a lot of time to get anything. Plus search takes a bunch of clicks usually. So this stuff seems an attempt to take a form of AI and get a useful answer in one click based on where you are at what time. Well, all very interesting. In the company overview one of the advisors is with Wilson Sonsini, which is the big Silicon Valley law firm that took Apple and Google public. Okaaaayyyyy. Most of the rest are pretty prominent people too. Another advisor, a Carnegie Mellon Professor Anind Dey, previously worked for Intel. Dr. James White of CalTech founded a company called Active Spectrum that is developing an RF chip that can apparently tune as needed to most any radio spectrum. All very interesting stuff. So did Google buy this company? Or was it someone else trying to keep the technology quiet? I have no idea. But I read something today that makes that question even murkier. I will blog on that later in the week. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
I am off on my annual pilgrimage to Broadband Wireless World this week. Looks to be lots of new goings on. I know of at least one major launch being announced at the show. They have kept pretty quiet so far. If you are in the industry, you will know the man launching this company however. If you are out at the show, feel free to give us a ring. I will be there all day Thursday and Friday. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
I am always looking for something new that is useful for Broadband Wireless. And mapping technology is a huge part of the business. Well, I stumbled on something fascinating. It is a new type of location specific search technology at its most basic. But that is just part of it. I had seen a blurb about a big WiFi project at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology that talked about location based mapping of APs. I thought that was kinda neat. Well, this led me to a Thesis that a researcher there (by the name of Napier Fuller) wrote. You have to pay to download the thesis so I started searching for him. It appears he has started a company. Wireless 5th Dimensional Networking is a pretty bare bones site. The Silicon Valley company does not go out of its way to tell you all that much about itself. Fuller is listed as the Founder and President. It has filed at least one patent and that and the Thesis paper is linked on its site. The website also says it was sold this year to an anonymous buyer. I only got voice mail when I called. Well, now I am starting to wonder why all the secrecy about who bought them out. Well, I love a mystery. And they were making it just hard enough for me to intrigue me, so I looked up the patent application. Now that turned out to be pretty easy. And guess what? Both the patent and paper are in the filing there. The paper is under the Documents tab. Turns out that this patent heavily references this research Thesis, which is based on something called Context Aware Search. Folks this is no less than an application of Artificial Intelligence to location (and I mean Access Point) specific searching. I won't try to describe it all in this blog. But it impressed the dickens out of me. Basically its a search engine that's designed from the ground up for wireless networks. Imagine a search engine that understands what hotspot you are at and can filter every search query you make based on that. BUT which also takes into account the time of day and day of the week you are searching as well as parsing commonsense knowledge people in the area should have. Driving directions are not take street so and so. They are instead go West two blocks from the Big Dome, turn right and look for Tang Hall. If you type in "shows tonight" it might give you times of nearby shows that are not sold out (if such info is available) and that you have time to get to from your location (at least supposedly). Now if this is not just smoke and mirrors (and the company is going a bit out of its way to not claim anything from what I can tell) this is a radical search innovation. I am going to dig a bit more into this and post more later. I don't know how far along this is or even if it is even close to a product phase, but… I am especially curious who bought them and why it is being kept so quiet. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
One of my good friends, Ken DiPietro blogs quite lucidly on Municipal wireless, public policy and many other things. Ken's Blog covers many topics, but I was especially struck by one blog on Regulation as being very important and a potentially massive looming problem. The Telcos want to control the quality of IP traffic. Basically they propose their circuits to be a toll road. Nevermind that we the public are already paying for service. The Telcos have decided they want to offer prioritization and the FCC seems amenable to allow this. Why is this bad? Well on the surface it isn't necessarily. Many VoIP companies would probably do well to have their IP traffic prioritized on a network for example. Of course, what about smaller companies who could not afford this "prioritization", would they in turn be discriminated against or relegated to something less than they have now? One has to think yes. So structurally, would this mean that every network IP traffic would cross to reach a consumer would get its own little cut? I shudder to think how many hops I go through just to reach Google. How many times must Google pay for me to get free services from them? Ultimately, if this happens I pay or I do without or someone wealthier gets a better experience. What if we are talking online education or distance learning. Will poorer children or school systems be able to afford the educational content that wealthier patrons of the net will get? What about rural kids? I don't know. But it is a slippery slope. Now, how this came about is straightforward enough. The Telcos have enjoyed a monopoly, albeit a regulated one for a long time. One could say that the regulation makes things inherently fair. Trust me, the Telcos learned to play the political game of regulation long ago. They get their way, just witness a Louisiana law forbidding the city of New Orleans from operating a broadband network. Remember the days when cable TV was illegal in bigger cities? The broadcast stations had a great lobby then. Now, for a long time Telcos have been content to deliver the content as they always have. It was no big deal, they had the pipes. The problem now is that innovation has exploded what was one of the truly stable business models in the US (along with electric power). Voice over IP by the cablecos and cellular service is rapidly stripping the incumbent Telcos of their cash cow, which is local service. I think they have few choices with the switch type networks most are operating. What are they going to do to ensure they maintain revenues? And trust me, we do need them to survive. They do operate most of the nation's backbone. So what is a happy medium ground? I don't know that I have the answer but I don't think giving them a regulatory win of such profound nature is the answer. I suspect what the Telcos must do is learn to compete as commercial companies do in the marketplace. The recent uptick in fiber deployments by AT&T and others is very encouraging because it means they are adjusting to offer new products like IPTV. I think this is the path of success. A positive one too. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
I read yet another good article in the wall street journal this past week about the change in thinking amongst a few companies that previously fought Muni wireless. Now, in general I think that co-opting Muni wireless is the height of wisdom. Not because Muni wireless necessarily makes a lot of sense especially in regards to the business case (can you say free wi-fi access—oh goodness). Rather my opinion is that it is a juggernaut for simple human reasons. People fear being left behind and city politicians are especially fearful of this. It has become the end all be all of things one must have to attract industry. Nevermind that no one yet knows if it will work at large scale. And too Wi-Fi technology is especially poorly suited for citywide access. Well, what is is as they say. So some of these companies are Tim Warner, AT&T and Cox Communications. Cox is working with a couple of other firms in Arizona. Time Warner has perked its interest up in Texas and AT&T is already bidding to deploy service in Michigan. Probably the big upside to all of this is that it could be a real precursor driver for a better type of Wireless Municipal Area Network (WMAN). Either WiMax or a solid proprietary system that could predominate in unlicensed bands. I don't see licensed spectrum mobility plays filling this same niche. The cell providers will be years filling this need and their early pricing is entirely too high. I know much of the Forum is greatly enamored with Mobility because they all have hopes of winning the high scale marketplace. But limited mobility more fixed solutions are what are winning the market now. For good or ill, muni wireless is here to stay. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
I saw this nice piece on MSNBCs site about the potential dangers of offering free Wi-Fi over Muni networks. Do I think the dangers are real? Yes. As a business case Broadband Wireless consultant (primarily) I see the fallout of carriers charging too little or depending on unproven models to succeed all the time. The article makes the good point that lower density cities may not sustain free Wi-Fi. I am not so sure that any size city can sustain it with an advertising model. As I recall the dotcom crash was littered with failed advertising models. I suppose that a very low-tier and slow free level is okay or a discounted program for low-income folks could be fine. Or even a very, very low price slow speed maybe. But the fallout from failures will be devastating to cities, perhaps more than they realize. Being prudent for the long haul has much to recommend it. And besides if the value of having a citywide Wi-Fi network is there in the first place, then it is probably worth charging some for it. So think twice you big tall cities, think twice. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
Mesh technology is much in the news of late. I see stories such as this one on Motorola and its new MOTOMESH solution. Similarly, BelAir Networks is helping bring Wi-Fi Mesh to the island of St. Thomas. Also, Earthlink is doing another wireless network in Milpitas, CA, presumably with Mesh (It has used Tropos in the past). Speaking of Tropos, it and Allot are teaming to offer management technology optimized for its radios. This just indicates to me that metro Wi-Fi, which mesh is well suited for is becoming an avalanche. Anyway, I have several thoughts on this from multiple sides. First, I think Metro Wi-Fi or Metro wireless in some form is going to grow strongly. And it will do so despite challenges from utilities. The reason I think is basic human motivations about wants and needs. Metro wireless will grow because cities believe they need this to recruit industry. It is all about economic development as well as simplifying and improving city services and response. With the hurricane damage of last year much in mind, public safety aspects are big too. But essentially what will drive further adoption is fear. Fear specifically of being left behind, fear of not keeping up with the city nearby. That makes Metro Wireless a need not a want anymore. But what is driving the Wi-Fi aspect? To me it is the standard and the unlicensed aspect of Wi-Fi. Within the rules no one can tell cities they cannot do it. Sure the Telcos will try, but I don't think they will win. Eventually they will co-opt I suspect. They will try to win on the legislative side by trying to control the overlayer of content delivery fees (which is a whole 'nother topic that is huge, huge). Interestingly, this is an argument for WiMax. Or at least the promise of a proper metropolitan area network (MAN) interoperable standard that encompasses both licensed and unlicensed bands. WiMax has a ways to go to reach that promise. Still, the point is clear to me at least. Free people and empower them to create and good things happen for society if not for entrenched interests. Now what about problems with Mesh? The traditional knock on them is that the overhead of crosstalk quickly chokes mesh networks beyond a certain size. Also, they have typically been more expensive units requiring both access point and and receiver capability in each housing, plus perhaps a separate backhaul. Well, the technology has improved, routing techniques are a lot more sophisticated and some vendors are writing proprietary MACs for the backhaul portion and even splitting up spectrum by adding additional radios to housings. This has become much more cost effective. But I am most concerned with interference issues in larger cities more so than smaller ones. The very popularity of Wi-Fi has driven a lot of private Wi-Fi networks into existence. Even for providers who site survey aggressively, the RF environment is subject to change tomorrow. There are lots of artful ways to address this via channelization and others of course. But I suspect that as these networks load, every weakness (and trust me there will be some) will become exposed. What the backlash will be I am uncertain. I do think these problems can get largely solved by good network management and field tweaking. But it will require a real hands on skillset for carriers to manage this process. Perhaps more importantly, it behooves carriers to manage the cities expectations early that this will occur. It could save much stress later, and if it does NOT, then the carriers have successfully underpromised and overdelivered—no bad thing. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
My buddy Robert Veltman announced his launch of a new company StarMesh Technologies in partnership with WebNet CWN, a Canadian-based service provider to distribute Hopling mesh radios in North and South America. The deal also includes the purchase by WebNet CWN of 1 million euros worth of Hopling gear minimum per year. Hopling I believe from memory is based in the Netherlands. I am not familiar with their gear. However, Bob tells me that the stuff is really superior as mesh radio technology goes. I thought this deal point was healthy. That is a lot of gear. It is also interesting to see more European vendors enter the US market. The Russian based Infinet is also in the process of launching its products over here. I would be curious to hear your feedback on this. I did notice they were a WiMAX Forum member and I am quite interested in how WiMax mesh systems will perform once product profiles and interoperability testing kicks into gear. I have some concerns as regards interference with Wi-Fi systems in bigger towns. Having said that I think Metro Wi-Fi is a juggernaut that will not be stopped. And not because of technology either. But more on that some other time. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
Hi everyone. Just a quick note to mention that our interview on www.wimaxglobalnews.com with Monica Paolini is now UP. Enjoy. Monica is my favorite Italian. And besides being a really nice person is a terrific WiMax Consultant. She reports on 3GSM and the WiMax meeting in Paris of late. I hope you enjoy it. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.net
I thought this article on the Earthlink Investment of $50 Million in Covad was interesting news. Covad is seriously involved in broadband wireless. It spent nearly $25 million last year to acquire NextWeb (one of the premier business case Wireless ISPs out there) and I understand Earthlink is very interested in broadband wireless too. Though how seriously is much in question. Covad uses something called Line Powered Voice which operates from the CO. Basically customers use analog phones as always (with no installs needed at the customer location) and the VoIP gear at the CO handles the connection. It also means that power outages aren't a problem unless the CO itself is down. Earthlink will sell the service around the US with a DSL bundle (which does need a modem). As I am about 30,000 feet from my CO (all copper), I should probably not set my heart on a DSL connection any time soon. Tim Sanders tim@thefinalmile.netwww.thefinalmile.netwww.wimaxglobalnews.com
